What do you know about the current situation of th

2022-08-06
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How much do you know about the current situation of glass in various regions

from October 16 to October 18, a relevant futures exchange visited three glass production related enterprises in Northeast and North China to understand the production, sales and inventory of related enterprises, and listened to the company's views on the future glass market. The main research conclusions are as follows:

1. The demand in North China is good, the enterprise profits are good, the output mainly meets the local demand, the inter regional trade is closed, and the products follow the differentiation route. According to the current investigation, the available days of inventory of each company are at a low level, which is similar to that of the same period last year. From the fact that there are almost no orders going south this year, it can be seen that the overall demand of North China this year should be better than that of the same period last year. At the same time, due to the continuous closing of the cross regional arbitrage window, leading to the closing of inter regional trade, all regions in North China basically belong to the state of self production and self sales. Companies are also pursuing the differentiation route among products. For example, company B mainly produces 2~6mm white glass and company C mainly produces 4~12mm white glass. The differentiated products also reduce the possibility of price war

2. North China has benefited from its geographical advantages, and the proportion of demand side exports is increasing. As there is no cost advantage in raw material outsourcing, the domestic market can only maintain profit and loss balance, so export demand has gradually become the main profit point of the company. Due to geographical advantages, glass enterprises in North China have become their main demand for export. The freight of glass from North China to Tianjin port is about 40 yuan/ton cheaper than that from Northeast China to Dalian port. For example, 70% of the colored glass produced by company B is exported, and the export demand of company C accounts for 40% of the total demand. At the same time, due to the fact that glass in North China has raised the research on graphene to a strategic level, glass enterprises in China basically export raw materials and have high fuel costs, so the domestic selling price can only be maintained near the break even point. Therefore, the export profit is the main profit point of each company at present

3. The enterprises in Northeast China have their own mines, and the fuel is coal, which has cost advantages. However, the inventory in the region is high, and the demand in the region is not good enough. It is expected that the stock will be removed in the future, which will suppress the local spot price. Enterprises in Northeast China have their own mines, which can meet their own production needs, and the fuel is coal. Compared with the use of natural gas and coke oven gas in North China, it has more cost advantages. However, the overall inventory in the region is high, and the "golden nine silver ten" is not good enough. It is expected that enterprises will have a strong expectation of going to the warehouse in the future, which will suppress the local spot price

4. The depreciation of RMB is conducive to the export of enterprises. The future glass market depends more on the national real estate policy and monetary policy. At the same time, we should pay attention to whether there is a restructuring policy in the glass industry. Since a large part of the terminal demand for glass is used in the real estate industry, the companies surveyed in this survey generally believe that the future national policy of attaching equal importance to real estate in the real estate inorganic salt industry and the national monetary policy will directly affect the future trend of the glass industry. At the same time, in the context of the depreciation of the RMB, the companies said, We will pay more attention to increasing the proportion of export demand in our own demand. At the same time, the glass industry is currently in an overall industry with overcapacity and serious homogenization. Therefore, if the state can introduce relevant restructuring policies in the future, it will be a great benefit to the glass industry

5. The futures price is low and in the state of discount. However, due to the suppression of the spot price of the futures target, it is expected that the short-term main contracts will be strongly supported and the medium and long-term contracts will be short. The futures price is currently at a relatively low level and at a discount. At the same time, the construction industry is suspended in the heating season near the end of the year, and the construction site is expected to speed up the completion and obtain funds. This is also demonstrated by the high purchase volume of spot threads. Therefore, the demand side is in a good situation at present. However, as the subject of futures, the spot price in Shahe region is difficult to increase in the short term because the supply side has no cost advantage and all raw materials are imported. The demand side has no geographical advantage. In addition, the weak real estate expectation in 19 years and the stricter environmental protection policy expectation. It is expected that the futures price will be strongly supported in the short term and short in the medium and long term

6. On the whole, the production situation in North China is stable and the demand is strong. Three of the 30 CO catalytic materials can be selected from the inventory; In the process of synthesis, two kinds of chemical raw materials are selected, and the number of days used is at a low level. The profit of the enterprise is good, and the depreciation of RMB is more conducive to the company's export demand; Although the northeast region has production advantages, the export proportion is not high, and the overall inventory pressure in the region is large, and the future spot price pressure is large. In the short term, the spot price in North China is stronger and the spot price in Northeast China is weaker. In terms of futures, the short-term support is strong, and the medium and long-term are short

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